No clear favorite. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at just 21%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $1256.5M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 21% | +384% | $14.4M |
| 2 | Gavin Newsom | 17% | +480% | $26.7M |
| 3 | Jon Ossoff | 16% | +543% | $12.6M |
| 4 | Kamala Harris | 7% | +1242% | $12.9M |
| 5 | Pete Buttigieg BEST VALUE | 5% | +1769% | $11.8M |
| 6 | Josh Shapiro | 5% | +1920% | $9.5M |
| 7 | Mark Kelly | 3% | +3179% | $17.2M |
| 8 | Rahm Emanuel | 2% | +3982% | $14.4M |
| 9 | Andy Beshear | 2% | +4155% | $12.9M |
| 10 | Ro Khanna | 2% | +4344% | $11.2M |
| 11 | James Talarico | 2% | +4900% | $10.4M |
| 12 | Wes Moore | 1% | +6797% | $17.5M |
| 13 | Jon Stewart | 1% | +7900% | $24.6M |
| 14 | J.B. Pritzker | 1% | +8596% | $15.4M |
| 15 | Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | +9424% | $11.9M |
| 16 | Michelle Obama | 1% | +11665% | $26.1M |
| 17 | Raphael Warnock | 1% | +15285% | $32.0M |
| 18 | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | +15285% | $12.4M |
| 19 | Mark Cuban | 1% | +18082% | $22.8M |
| 20 | Cory Booker | 1% | +18082% | $25.5M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution...
This prediction market tracks whether Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 will occur, with $1256.5M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at only 21% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $701K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-11-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 02:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 21% probability, with $1256.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1256.5M, with $701K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms