The market strongly favors On or prior to June 9 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | On or prior to June 9 | 100% | - | $73K |
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This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes "Claude Mythos" available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes “Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, C...
This prediction market tracks whether Claude Mythos released on…? will occur, with $147K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: On or prior to June 9 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $124K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 07:55 UTC, the leading outcome is On or prior to June 9 at 100% probability, with $147K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $147K, with $124K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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