The market strongly favors Match Winner at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 86% | +17% | $18K |
| 2 | Game 2 Winner | 80% | +24% | $294 |
| 3 | Game 1 Winner | 80% | +26% | $426 |
| 4 | Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) | 52% | +90% | $13K |
| 5 | Any Player Rampage | 52% | +92% | - |
| 6 | First Blood in Game 2? | 51% | +96% | - |
| 7 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% | +98% | - |
| 8 | Ends in Daytime | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Ends in Daytime | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | First Blood in Game 1? | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% | +102% | - |
| 17 | Ends in Daytime | 50% | +102% | - |
| 18 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% | +194% | - |
| 19 | O/U 2.5 Games | 32% | +208% | $527 |
| 20 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks BEST VALUE | 32% | +217% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between MOUZ and Hokori in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" i...
This prediction market tracks whether Dota 2: MOUZ vs Hokori (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage will occur, with $33K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Match Winner is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $33K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-22. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 86% probability, with $33K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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