No clear favorite. 90-114 leads at just 32%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 90-114 | 32% | +217% | $2K |
| 2 | 115-139 | 20% | +413% | $767 |
| 3 | 65-89 | 17% | +488% | $4K |
| 4 | 140-164 | 14% | +641% | $1K |
| 5 | 165-189 | 8% | +1090% | $1K |
| 6 | 40-64 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $2K |
| 7 | 190-214 | 4% | +2369% | $1K |
| 8 | 215-239 | 4% | +2640% | $1K |
| 9 | <40 | 1% | +8233% | $3K |
| 10 | 240+ | 1% | +8991% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 2 12:00 PM ET to November 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main fee...
This prediction market tracks whether Elon Musk # tweets November 2 - November 4, 2026? will occur, with $19K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — 90-114 leads at only 32% across 10 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (87% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 90-114 at 32% probability, with $19K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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