The market strongly favors July 31 at 97%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 97% | +3% | $148K |
| 2 | June 30 | 92% | +8% | $95K |
| 3 | June 15 BEST VALUE | 22% | +344% | $185K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a produc...
This prediction market tracks whether GPT-5.6 released by...? will occur, with $773K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: July 31 is priced at 97%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $40K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 97% probability, with $773K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $773K, with $40K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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