The market strongly favors December 31 at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 86% | +16% | $2K |
| 2 | October 31 | 46% | +117% | $10K |
| 3 | October 23 | 20% | +388% | $2K |
| 4 | October 16 BEST VALUE | 14% | +614% | $1K |
| 5 | October 9 | 5% | +1920% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market...
This prediction market tracks whether GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? will occur, with $21K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31 is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 29, 2026 at 04:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 86% probability, with $21K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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