The market strongly favors 14°C or higher at 85%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14°C or higher | 85% | +18% | $5K |
| 2 | 13°C BEST VALUE | 10% | +852% | $1K |
| 3 | 12°C | 4% | +2147% | $775 |
| 4 | 11°C | 1% | +11665% | $716 |
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Esenboğa Intl Airport (LTAC) on 12 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reporte...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest temperature in Ankara on November 12? will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 14°C or higher is priced at 85%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 12, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 14°C or higher at 85% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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