No clear favorite. 31°C leads at just 38%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31°C | 38% | +167% | $3K |
| 2 | 30°C | 36% | +174% | $3K |
| 3 | 29°C | 10% | +852% | $2K |
| 4 | 32°C BEST VALUE | 10% | +900% | $859 |
| 5 | 33°C | 4% | +2147% | $657 |
| 6 | 28°C | 2% | +6567% | $2K |
| 7 | 34°C | 2% | +6567% | $2K |
| 8 | 27°C | 1% | +16567% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — 31°C leads at only 38% across 8 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (86% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 09, 2026 at 11:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 31°C at 38% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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