Market is split — 1 at 48%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 48% | +106% | $1K |
| 2 | 2 | 32% | +212% | $531 |
| 3 | 3 BEST VALUE | 14% | +602% | $629 |
| 4 | 4 | 4% | +2717% | $553 |
| 5 | >5 | 2% | +4067% | $2K |
| 6 | 5 | 1% | +9424% | $656 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM...
This prediction market tracks whether How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with 1 leading at just 48%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $9K traded in the last 24 hours alone (77% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-17. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 11, 2026 at 02:55 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 at 48% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms