10-12 leads at 77%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10-12 | 77% | +30% | $11K |
| 2 | 13-15 BEST VALUE | 19% | +421% | $5K |
| 3 | 7-9 | 3% | +3075% | $14K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democra...
This prediction market tracks whether How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary? will occur, with $50K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward 10-12 at 77%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (29% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
As of Sep 03, 2026 at 03:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 10-12 at 77% probability, with $50K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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