The market strongly favors 10-12 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10-12 | 100% | - | $42K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democra...
This prediction market tracks whether How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary? will occur, with $98K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: 10-12 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours alone (27% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
As of Oct 27, 2026 at 05:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 10-12 at 100% probability, with $98K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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