Trump Prediction Markets

Live odds on Trump presidency, policies, and actions. Track real-money predictions.

Trump-related prediction markets are among the most actively traded on Polymarket, covering everything from policy decisions and executive orders to legal outcomes and political statements. With thousands of traders weighing in, these markets provide real-time probability estimates for the most consequential and closely-watched political figure in American politics.

38
Active Events
$6.5M
24h Volume

All Trump Prediction Markets

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase
86%
50+ bps increase
12%
No change
4%
24h: $2.9M Total: $25.4M Ends: Dec 10, 2026

Fed Decision in January?▲ +13%

25 bps increase
54%
No change
46%
25 bps decrease
1%
24h: $1.2M Total: $2.7M Ends: Jan 28, 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?▼ -2%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
6%
24h: $372K Total: $79.6M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?▼ -15%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense
12%
24h: $326K Total: $2.7M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?▼ -13%

March 31
64%
December 31
34%
December 15
21%
November 30
12%
November 15
3%
24h: $305K Total: $51.7M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Next Senate Majority Leader?▲ +6%

Chuck Schumer
86%
Chris Van Hollen
14%
Brian Schatz
2%
24h: $163K Total: $830K Ends: Nov 04, 2026

Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31
30%
November 30
16%
November 15
2%
24h: $155K Total: $154K Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?▲ +3%

China
94%
No meeting by December 31
6%
United States
1%
24h: $114K Total: $2.6M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Who will Trump speak to by November 30?▼ -14%

Friedrich Merz
100%
Mark Carney
99%
Xi Jinping
97%
Vladimir Putin
92%
Mohammed bin Salman
84%
24h: $94K Total: $397K Ends: Dec 01, 2026

Next Press Secretary announced by...?▼ -3%

December 31
74%
November 30
38%
24h: $74K Total: $1.3M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?▲ +80%

Karoline Leavitt
100%
Tulsi Gabbard
100%
Pam Bondi
100%
Dan Bongino
100%
Susie Wiles
100%
24h: $69K Total: $2.4M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?▼ -3%

December 31, 2027
70%
November 30, 2027
69%
October 31, 2027
67%
September 30, 2027
64%
August 31, 2027
62%
24h: $68K Total: $10.7M Ends: Jul 01, 2027

NATO x Russia military clash by...?▼ -2%

December 31
10%
November 30
4%
November 15
1%
24h: $54K Total: $13.4M Ends: Jan 03, 2027

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?▲ +6%

December 31, 2027
47%
March 31, 2027
24%
December 31
11%
24h: $52K Total: $3.6M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?▼ -4%

December 31
32%
November 30
12%
24h: $51K Total: $4.3M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?
2%
24h: $51K Total: $14.6M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?▼ -12%

December 31, 2026
38%
November 30, 2026
16%
24h: $49K Total: $2.0M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro
93%
Delcy Rodríguez
7%
24h: $44K Total: $100.1M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Next Press Secretary?▼ -7%

Candidate AA
50%
Candidate AB
50%
Candidate AC
50%
Candidate AD
50%
Candidate AE
50%
24h: $40K Total: $826K Ends: Jan 01, 2028

US imports Russian diesel by...?▲ +2%

March 31
14%
January 31
12%
December 31
10%
November 30
8%
November 15
2%
24h: $39K Total: $1.5M Ends: Apr 01, 2027

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027
3%
24h: $38K Total: $29.8M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?▲ +2%

No Meeting by December 31
62%
Qatar
22%
Pakistan
4%
Turkey
3%
USA
3%
24h: $36K Total: $358K Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?▲ +2%

CXMT
28%
Hesai
18%
Unitree
18%
CATL
16%
YMTC
14%
24h: $33K Total: $754K Ends: Jul 01, 2027

Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?

March 31, 2027
22%
December 31, 2026
10%
November 30, 2026
3%
24h: $29K Total: $293K Ends: Apr 01, 2027

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?▼ -6%

December 31
22%
November 30
10%
24h: $24K Total: $3.8M Ends: Nov 01, 2026

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027
96%
US
3%
Turkey
1%
Qatar / UAE
1%
24h: $19K Total: $4.3M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Fed Decision in March?▲ +8%

25 bps increase
55%
No change
40%
25 bps decrease
4%
50+ bps increase
2%
50+ bps decrease
2%
24h: $18K Total: $165K Ends: Mar 18, 2027

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?▼ -22%

Pete Hegseth
56%
Nobody
28%
Donald Trump
16%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
24h: $17K Total: $70K Ends: Jan 01, 2028

Jensen Huang divorce by...?▼ -2%

March 31, 2027
16%
December 31, 2026
8%
24h: $13K Total: $239K Ends: Apr 01, 2027

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law i
2%
24h: $12K Total: $25.1M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are Trump prediction markets so popular?

Trump-related markets are among the highest-volume on Polymarket because they cover high-stakes, high-uncertainty events that affect global markets. The unpredictable nature of presidential actions creates frequent trading opportunities as news breaks.

What Trump events can I trade on?

Markets cover executive orders, policy decisions (tariffs, immigration, energy), legal proceedings, personnel changes, diplomatic actions, social media activity, and election-related events. New markets are added as situations develop.

How do Trump prediction markets react to news?

Trump markets are highly responsive to breaking news, often repricing within minutes of tweets, press conferences, or leaked reports. This makes them a real-time barometer of how traders interpret the likely policy and political consequences of new developments.

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