Trump Prediction Markets

Live odds on Trump presidency, policies, and actions. Track real-money predictions.

Trump-related prediction markets are among the most actively traded on Polymarket, covering everything from policy decisions and executive orders to legal outcomes and political statements. With thousands of traders weighing in, these markets provide real-time probability estimates for the most consequential and closely-watched political figure in American politics.

34
Active Events
$16.9M
24h Volume

All Trump Prediction Markets

US forces enter Iran by..?▼ -3%

December 31
76%
April 30
70%
March 31
5%
24h: $7.5M Total: $54.8M

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

December 31
72%
June 30
58%
May 31
48%
April 30
30%
April 15
18%
24h: $3.3M Total: $64.1M

Will Trump visit China by...?▼ -5%

June 30
82%
May 31
74%
April 30, 2026
2%
24h: $1.6M Total: $18.3M Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Who will Trump talk to in March?

Friedrich Merz
100%
Maria Corina Machado
100%
Emmanuel Macron
100%
Keir Starmer
100%
Ursula von der Leyen
100%
24h: $445K Total: $1.0M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?▲ +2%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
3%
24h: $422K Total: $5.2M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

June 30
68%
April 30
38%
April 15
22%
April 7
8%
March 31
2%
24h: $344K Total: $7.9M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

December 31
74%
June 30
55%
May 15
36%
April 30
25%
April 15
14%
24h: $317K Total: $8.7M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?▲ +2%

Delcy Rodríguez
64%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
24h: $298K Total: $78.6M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
95%
Judy Shelton
2%
Michelle Bowman
1%
Jerome Powell
1%
24h: $229K Total: $15.7M Ends: Oct 31, 2026

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?

100-119
82%
120-139
14%
80-99
7%
200+
1%
140-159
1%
24h: $207K Total: $583K Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?
16%
24h: $206K Total: $5.4M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75%
34%
3.5%
24%
3.25%
13%
4.0%
12%
2.75%
6%
24h: $198K Total: $5.9M Ends: Dec 09, 2026

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

April 30
28%
April 15
10%
March 31
1%
24h: $194K Total: $2.2M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Who visited Epstein's Island?▼ -4%

Kevin Spacey
33%
Richard Branson
14%
Woody Allen
12%
Steve Bannon
11%
Steven Tisch
10%
24h: $181K Total: $1.4M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027
34%
24h: $172K Total: $12.2M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Iran military action against ___ by March 31?

Israel
100%
Jordan
100%
Saudi Arabia
100%
Bahrain
100%
UAE
100%
24h: $165K Total: $3.6M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Trump out as President by June 30?

Trump out as President by June 30?
6%
24h: $161K Total: $1.8M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 31
10%
24h: $132K Total: $4.9M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Lori Chavez-DeRemer
58%
Tulsi Gabbard
16%
Pete Hegseth
10%
None before 2027
6%
Howard Lutnick
2%
24h: $106K Total: $2.5M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

How many times will the US strike Somalia in March?

6-9
96%
10-13
1%
24h: $80K Total: $771K Ends: Apr 04, 2026

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

April 30
46%
March 31
1%
24h: $64K Total: $5.2M Ends: Jan 31, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

June 30
74%
April 30
42%
April 10
22%
March 31
2%
24h: $63K Total: $1.1M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

When will the DHS shutdown end?

After April 30
26%
April 13-16
23%
April 29-30
15%
April 17-20
15%
Arpil 21-24
9%
24h: $63K Total: $525K Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?▼ -3%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
64%
24h: $59K Total: $1.7M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

80-99
37%
100-119
30%
60-79
11%
120-139
10%
140-159
4%
24h: $50K Total: $153K Ends: Apr 03, 2026

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?▲ +3%

No meeting by June 30
85%
Other EU country
5%
United States
2%
Gulf country
2%
Russia
2%
24h: $48K Total: $4.6M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Trump out as President by April 30?

Trump out as President by April 30?
2%
24h: $46K Total: $229K Ends: Apr 30, 2026

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

Easter
100%
Commander-in-Chief
100%
TSA
100%
Strait of Hormuz
100%
Travel
100%
24h: $43K Total: $43K Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uraniu
1%
24h: $34K Total: $2.2M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

What will Trump say this week? (March 29)

Six Seven
100%
UK / United Kingdom
100%
Make America Great Again
100%
Minnesota / Minneapolis
100%
Epic Fury
100%
24h: $34K Total: $519K Ends: Mar 29, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are Trump prediction markets so popular?

Trump-related markets are among the highest-volume on Polymarket because they cover high-stakes, high-uncertainty events that affect global markets. The unpredictable nature of presidential actions creates frequent trading opportunities as news breaks.

What Trump events can I trade on?

Markets cover executive orders, policy decisions (tariffs, immigration, energy), legal proceedings, personnel changes, diplomatic actions, social media activity, and election-related events. New markets are added as situations develop.

How do Trump prediction markets react to news?

Trump markets are highly responsive to breaking news, often repricing within minutes of tweets, press conferences, or leaked reports. This makes them a real-time barometer of how traders interpret the likely policy and political consequences of new developments.

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