Market is split — 8 at 60%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 60% | +68% | $54K |
| 2 | 7 | 35% | +185% | $76K |
| 3 | Greater than 8 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $69K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tr...
This prediction market tracks whether How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? will occur, with $217K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with 8 leading at just 60%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $9K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 12, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 8 at 60% probability, with $217K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $217K, with $9K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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