Greater than 8 leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greater than 8 | 80% | +25% | $14K |
| 2 | 8 BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $7K |
| 3 | 7 | 3% | +2885% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tr...
This prediction market tracks whether How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? will occur, with $34K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward Greater than 8 at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (40% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 08, 2026 at 07:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Greater than 8 at 80% probability, with $34K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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