Market is split — June 27 at 58%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 27 | 58% | +74% | $31K |
| 2 | July 8 | 9% | +1011% | $14 |
| 3 | June 28 | 8% | +1233% | $11K |
| 4 | July 9 | 8% | +1233% | $25 |
| 5 | July 4 | 6% | +1526% | $6K |
| 6 | July 5 | 6% | +1718% | $5K |
| 7 | July 1 | 5% | +1861% | $7K |
| 8 | June 30 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $11K |
| 9 | June 29 | 5% | +2098% | $11K |
| 10 | July 3 | 4% | +2173% | $5K |
| 11 | July 2 | 4% | +2400% | $5K |
| 12 | June 26 | 3% | +2885% | $42K |
| 13 | July 7 | 3% | +3075% | $7K |
| 14 | July 6 | 3% | +3075% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran successfully targets shipping on...? will occur, with $145K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with June 27 leading at just 58%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $134K traded in the last 24 hours alone (92% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-09. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 27, 2026 at 11:55 UTC, the leading outcome is June 27 at 58% probability, with $145K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $145K, with $134K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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