No clear favorite. June 30 leads at just 11%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $2.7M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 11% | +809% | $414K |
| 2 | June 15 | 2% | +4344% | $612K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refer...
This prediction market tracks whether Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? will occur, with $2.7M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — June 30 leads at only 11% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $85K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 10:05 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 11% probability, with $2.7M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.7M, with $85K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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