No clear favorite. 4.3% leads at just 38%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.3% | 38% | +163% | $6K |
| 2 | 4.2% | 32% | +217% | $3K |
| 3 | 4.4% | 14% | +641% | $770 |
| 4 | 4.1% BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $875 |
| 5 | 4.5% | 4% | +2464% | $57 |
| 6 | 4.6% | 4% | +2717% | $335 |
| 7 | ≥4.7% | 3% | +2930% | $89 |
| 8 | ≤3.9% | 3% | +3471% | $56 |
| 9 | 4.0% | 2% | +4662% | $20 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the...
This prediction market tracks whether July Unemployment Rate will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
No clear favorite has emerged — 4.3% leads at only 38% across 9 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (89% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 12, 2026 at 01:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.3% at 38% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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