Market is split — Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? at 46%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 46% | +120% | $133K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market cre...
As of May 14, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? at 46% probability, with $133K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $133K, with $70K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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