The market strongly favors Match Winner at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 86% | +17% | $8K |
| 2 | Game 1 Winner | 77% | +30% | $14K |
| 3 | Game 2 Winner | 76% | +32% | $296 |
| 4 | Game Handicap: LUA (-1.5) vs UB Alma Mater (+1.5) | 57% | +74% | $11K |
| 5 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 57% | +75% | - |
| 6 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% | +77% | - |
| 7 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% | +77% | - |
| 8 | Any Player Penta Kill | 52% | +92% | - |
| 9 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 39% | +156% | - |
| 16 | Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% | +160% | - |
| 17 | Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% | +160% | - |
| 18 | Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% | +163% | - |
| 19 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 38% | +163% | - |
| 20 | Any Player Quadra Kill BEST VALUE | 38% | +167% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the LoL match between LUA Gaming and UB Alma Mater in the LES Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 21 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "LUA Gaming" if LUA Gami...
This prediction market tracks whether LoL: LUA Gaming vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season will occur, with $36K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Match Winner is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-21. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 21, 2026 at 13:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 86% probability, with $36K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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