Match Winner leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 74% | +36% | $15K |
| 2 | Game 1 Winner | 63% | +59% | $7K |
| 3 | Game 3 Winner | 60% | +67% | $292 |
| 4 | Game 4 Winner | 60% | +67% | - |
| 5 | Game 2 Winner | 58% | +71% | $572 |
| 6 | O/U 4.5 Games | 58% | +71% | $510 |
| 7 | Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Conviction (+1.5) BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Game Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Conviction (+2.5) | 50% | +100% | $5 |
| 9 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Any Player Penta Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Any Player Penta Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Any Player Penta Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 2 match between NRG Esports and Conviction in the North American Challengers League Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET....
This prediction market tracks whether LoL: NRG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Match Winner at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-02. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 02, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 74% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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