Karen Bass leads at 62%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $13.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karen Bass | 62% | +60% | $709K |
| 2 | Nithya Raman | 38% | +161% | $1.2M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on No...
This prediction market tracks whether Los Angeles Mayoral Election will occur, with $13.1M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Karen Bass at 62%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $39K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 29, 2026 at 10:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Karen Bass at 62% probability, with $13.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $13.1M, with $39K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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