Market is split — Other at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 2 | Bell 4–8% | 38% | +163% | $648 |
| 3 | Bell <4% | 20% | +388% | $5K |
| 4 | Bush 4–8% | 15% | +567% | $403 |
| 5 | Bush <4% | 12% | +723% | $5K |
| 6 | Bush 12–16% | 10% | +890% | $226 |
| 7 | Bell 8–12% | 10% | +942% | $421 |
| 8 | Bell 12–16% | 8% | +1083% | $334 |
| 9 | Bush 8–12% BEST VALUE | 6% | +1624% | $267 |
| 10 | Bush 16%+ | 4% | +2532% | $222 |
| 11 | Bell 16%+ | 3% | +3409% | $226 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary elect...
This prediction market tracks whether MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Other leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (75% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 31, 2026 at 23:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Other at 50% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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