The market strongly favors No release by September 30 at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No release by September 30 | 86% | +16% | $66K |
| 2 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1513% | $769 |
| 3 | September 23 | 4% | +2717% | $459 |
| 4 | September 22 | 2% | +4067% | $579 |
| 5 | September 24 | 2% | +4248% | $589 |
| 6 | September 29 | 2% | +5614% | $370 |
| 7 | September 16 | 2% | +6150% | $538 |
| 8 | September 17 | 2% | +6150% | $542 |
| 9 | September 21 | 2% | +6150% | $532 |
| 10 | September 15 | 2% | +6352% | $542 |
| 11 | September 8 | 1% | +9424% | $557 |
| 12 | September 28 | 1% | +11011% | $480 |
| 13 | September 19 | 1% | +16567% | $302 |
| 14 | September 26 | 1% | +16567% | $300 |
| 15 | September 27 | 1% | +16567% | $302 |
| 16 | September 11 | 1% | +18082% | $298 |
| 17 | September 12 | 1% | +18082% | $302 |
| 18 | September 20 | 1% | +18082% | $302 |
| 19 | September 25 | 1% | +18082% | $298 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and label...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? will occur, with $80K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: No release by September 30 is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (17% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 08, 2026 at 21:15 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by September 30 at 86% probability, with $80K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms