On or prior to September 22 leads at 67%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | On or prior to September 22 | 67% | +50% | $2K |
| 2 | September 29 | 7% | +1318% | $448 |
| 3 | September 23 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $461 |
| 4 | September 24 | 6% | +1567% | $565 |
| 5 | October 7 | 5% | +2028% | $447 |
| 6 | October 13 | 4% | +2757% | $536 |
| 7 | October 15 | 3% | +3025% | $445 |
| 8 | September 30 | 3% | +3233% | $432 |
| 9 | September 25 | 3% | +3290% | $427 |
| 10 | October 1 | 3% | +3290% | $461 |
| 11 | October 12 | 3% | +3290% | $432 |
| 12 | No release by October 15 | 3% | +3290% | $418 |
| 13 | October 14 | 2% | +3900% | $427 |
| 14 | October 3 | 2% | +4067% | $727 |
| 15 | October 8 | 2% | +5456% | $506 |
| 16 | October 2 | 2% | +6150% | $417 |
| 17 | October 6 | 2% | +6567% | $427 |
| 18 | October 11 | 1% | +7043% | $422 |
| 19 | October 4 | 1% | +8991% | $465 |
| 20 | October 5 | 1% | +9424% | $441 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identif...
This prediction market tracks whether Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on...? will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward On or prior to September 22 at 67%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-15. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 12:05 UTC, the leading outcome is On or prior to September 22 at 67% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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