The market strongly favors 50%+ at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
Low Liquidity — trade with caution| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50%+ | 94% | +6% | $3K |
| 2 | 45%+ | 94% | +7% | $645 |
| 3 | 55%+ | 55% | +82% | $2K |
| 4 | 60%+ BEST VALUE | 8% | +1150% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Mythos-Class Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? will occur, with $10K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 50%+ is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 02, 2026 at 10:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 50%+ at 94% probability, with $10K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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