No clear favorite. No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at just 24%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $1.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 24% | +308% | $347K |
| 2 | 750B–1T | 20% | +389% | $160K |
| 3 | 1.5T+ | 20% | +404% | $129K |
| 4 | 1.25T–1.5T | 10% | +920% | $511K |
| 5 | 1T–1.25T BEST VALUE | 8% | +1166% | $201K |
| 6 | <500B | 4% | +2122% | $285K |
| 7 | 500–750B | 4% | +2757% | $157K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No I...
This prediction market tracks whether OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap will occur, with $1.8M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at only 24% across 7 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $22K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 14:55 UTC, the leading outcome is No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 24% probability, with $1.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.8M, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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