Market is split — 1.5T+ at 58%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.5T+ | 58% | +72% | $105K |
| 2 | No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 24% | +326% | $92K |
| 3 | 1.25T–1.5T BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $51K |
| 4 | 1T–1.25T | 4% | +2400% | $60K |
| 5 | 750B–1T | 3% | +3674% | $68K |
| 6 | <500B | 2% | +4248% | $42K |
| 7 | 500–750B | 2% | +5456% | $30K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No I...
This prediction market tracks whether OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap will occur, with $448K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with 1.5T+ leading at just 58%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $13K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 08, 2026 at 23:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 1.5T+ at 58% probability, with $448K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $448K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms