No clear favorite. No release by September 30 leads at just 37%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No release by September 30 | 37% | +170% | $763 |
| 2 | On or prior to September 2 | 6% | +1438% | $440 |
| 3 | September 11 | 6% | +1718% | $430 |
| 4 | September 13 | 6% | +1718% | $440 |
| 5 | September 17 | 6% | +1718% | $430 |
| 6 | September 27 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $440 |
| 7 | September 3 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 8 | September 4 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 9 | September 5 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 10 | September 7 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 11 | September 8 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 12 | September 21 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 13 | September 25 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 14 | September 26 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 15 | September 28 | 4% | +2122% | $440 |
| 16 | September 18 | 4% | +2400% | $430 |
| 17 | September 23 | 4% | +2400% | $440 |
| 18 | September 24 | 4% | +2400% | $430 |
| 19 | September 29 | 4% | +2432% | $430 |
| 20 | September 10 | 4% | +2757% | $440 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mat...
This prediction market tracks whether OpenAI's Astra released on...? will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — No release by September 30 leads at only 37% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 01, 2026 at 19:35 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by September 30 at 37% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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