Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PQ | 60% | $36K |
| 2 | PLQ | 30% | $35K |
| 3 | CAQ | 10% | $35K |
| 4 | PCQ | 1% | $116K |
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As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is PQ at 60% probability, with $370K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $370K, with $67K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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