March 31 leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $39.3M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | March 31 | 66% | +50% | $47K |
| 2 | December 31 | 44% | +125% | $3.2M |
| 3 | November 30 | 28% | +257% | $113K |
| 4 | October 31 BEST VALUE | 14% | +641% | $4.5M |
| 5 | October 15 | 4% | +2253% | $3.1M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States governmen...
This prediction market tracks whether US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? will occur, with $39.3M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward March 31 at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $361K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 12, 2026 at 14:35 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31 at 66% probability, with $39.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $39.3M, with $361K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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