OpenAI leads at 69%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OpenAI | 69% | +45% | $22K |
| 2 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Company A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Company B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Company C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Company D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Company E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Company F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Company G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Company H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Company I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Company J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Company K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Company L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Company M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Anthropic | 7% | +1329% | $3K |
| 17 | Moonshot BEST VALUE | 5% | +1752% | $6K |
| 18 | Z.ai | 3% | +3746% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30,...
This prediction market tracks whether Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September? will occur, with $44K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward OpenAI at 69%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (36% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 01, 2026 at 11:25 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 69% probability, with $44K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms