Market is split — Ralph Norman at 51%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ralph Norman | 51% | +96% | $4K |
| 2 | Candidate A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Darline Graham Nordone | 30% | +233% | $2K |
| 14 | Russell Fry | 6% | +1438% | $674 |
| 15 | Mark Lynch | 6% | +1438% | $3K |
| 16 | Mark Sanford BEST VALUE | 6% | +1581% | $388 |
| 17 | Henry McMaster | 2% | +5163% | $351 |
| 18 | Trey Gowdy | 1% | +13233% | $388 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This...
This prediction market tracks whether South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Ralph Norman leading at just 51%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (94% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 31, 2026 at 23:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Ralph Norman at 51% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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