The market strongly favors $720 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $720 | 100% | +0% | $5K |
| 2 | $725 | 100% | +0% | $878 |
| 3 | $730 | 99% | +1% | $3K |
| 4 | $735 | 98% | +2% | $5K |
| 5 | $740 | 91% | +10% | $8K |
| 6 | $745 | 22% | +357% | $9K |
| 7 | $750 BEST VALUE | 14% | +617% | $6K |
| 8 | $755 | 2% | +5614% | $40 |
| 9 | $760 | 1% | +13233% | $311 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 24?
This prediction market tracks whether S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 24? will occur, with $40K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: $720 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $39K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-24. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 24, 2026 at 16:25 UTC, the leading outcome is $720 at 100% probability, with $40K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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