The market strongly favors July 31 at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 88% | +14% | $8K |
| 2 | July 17 BEST VALUE | 54% | +87% | $11K |
| 3 | June 30 | 2% | +5961% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer formally ceases to be the Prime Minister of the UK by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Keir...
This prediction market tracks whether Starmer officially leaves office by…? will occur, with $21K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: July 31 is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 23, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 88% probability, with $21K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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