Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry | 74% | +36% | $13K |
| 2 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | O/U 3.5 Rounds | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | O/U 4.5 Rounds | 48% | +108% | - |
| 5 | Fight won by submission? | 47% | +113% | - |
| 6 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 47% | +113% | - |
| 7 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 44% | +127% | $16 |
| 8 | Makhachev to win by KO/TKO? | 44% | +127% | - |
| 9 | Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO? | 44% | +127% | - |
| 10 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 44% | +130% | - |
| 11 | O/U 2.5 Rounds BEST VALUE | 42% | +141% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $7K traded in the last 24 hours alone (53% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 04, 2026 at 01:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry at 74% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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