O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 70%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 70% | +43% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 66% | +50% | $7K |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 55% | +83% | - |
| 4 | Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado | 46% | +115% | $20K |
| 5 | Decision or Draw | 46% | +115% | - |
| 6 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 46% | +120% | - |
| 7 | Fight won by decision? | 46% | +120% | - |
| 8 | Ends before Round 3? | 44% | +125% | - |
| 9 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 42% | +138% | - |
| 10 | Ends before Round 2? | 40% | +153% | $755 |
| 11 | Prado to win by KO/TKO? | 37% | +170% | - |
| 12 | Prado in Round 1 | 33% | +203% | - |
| 13 | Fight won by submission? | 30% | +233% | $21 |
| 14 | Prado in Round 2 | 28% | +251% | - |
| 15 | Bonfim to win by KO/TKO? | 28% | +257% | - |
| 16 | Bonfim in Round 1 | 27% | +270% | - |
| 17 | Prado in Round 3 | 27% | +270% | - |
| 18 | Bonfim in Round 2 BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | - |
| 19 | Bonfim in Round 3 | 26% | +277% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Ismael Bonfim" if Ismael Bonfim is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francisco Prado at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims) will occur, with $28K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 70%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours alone (80% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 09, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 70% probability, with $28K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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