The market strongly favors Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse | 88% | +13% | $28K |
| 2 | Barbosa to win by KO/TKO? | 80% | +26% | $353 |
| 3 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 79% | +27% | - |
| 4 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 58% | +71% | - |
| 5 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 32% | +208% | $2K |
| 6 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 16% | +506% | - |
| 7 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 12% | +770% | $9 |
| 8 | Kuse to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | - |
| 9 | Fight won by submission? | 6% | +1438% | $245 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Marcio Barbosa" if Marcio Barbosa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ryan Kuse at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 20...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse (Featherweight, Prelims) will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 22, 2026 at 21:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse at 88% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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