O/U 1.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 74% | +35% | - |
| 2 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 64% | +57% | $185 |
| 3 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 63% | +59% | - |
| 4 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 54% | +85% | $6 |
| 5 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Davis to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | +102% | - |
| 7 | Aliev to win by KO/TKO? | 49% | +104% | $19 |
| 8 | Fight won by submission? | 48% | +106% | $344 |
| 9 | Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev BEST VALUE | 34% | +199% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Mike Davis" if Mike Davis is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 1.5 Rounds at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (82% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-26. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 21, 2026 at 16:45 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 74% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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