O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 84%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 84% | +19% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 62% | +63% | $1K |
| 3 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 60% | +65% | $56 |
| 4 | Oliveira to win by KO/TKO? | 58% | +71% | $52 |
| 5 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 41% | +144% | - |
| 6 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 32% | +217% | $427 |
| 7 | Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira | 22% | +344% | $14K |
| 8 | Fight won by submission? | 8% | +1233% | - |
| 9 | Elliott to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Oban Elliott" if Oban Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Michael Oliveira at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims) will occur, with $16K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 84%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (62% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-02. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 01, 2026 at 09:25 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 84% probability, with $16K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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