The market strongly favors Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $22.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 100% | - | $1.7M |
| 2 | Drake releases Iceman | 100% | - | $185K |
| 3 | GPT-6 released | 66% | +53% | $629K |
| 4 | New Playboi Carti Album | 51% | +96% | $734K |
| 5 | Trump out as President | 51% | +96% | $645K |
| 6 | New Rihanna Album | 50% | +98% | $728K |
| 7 | China invades Taiwan | 50% | +98% | $1.8M |
| 8 | Bitcoin hits $1m | 49% | +106% | $4.2M |
| 9 | Jesus Christ returns BEST VALUE | 48% | +106% | $11.4M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
As of May 15, 2026 at 20:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire at 100% probability, with $22.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $22.0M, with $73K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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