The market strongly favors Good Question at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good Question | 100% | +0% | $511 |
| 2 | CapEx / Capital Expenditure | 100% | +0% | $552 |
| 3 | Soft / Softening | 100% | +0% | $309 |
| 4 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | 100% | +0% | $1K |
| 5 | SI / Super Intelligence | 100% | +0% | $9K |
| 6 | Good Day | 100% | +0% | $11K |
| 7 | Payroll | 100% | +0% | $1K |
| 8 | Inflation 20+ times BEST VALUE | 100% | +1% | $873 |
| 9 | Conflict / Middle East | 1% | +18082% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on October 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the fol...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference? will occur, with $42K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Good Question is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $34K traded in the last 24 hours alone (80% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-28. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 28, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Good Question at 100% probability, with $42K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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