Shit / Ass leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shit / Ass | 80% | +26% | $94 |
| 2 | Nevada | 78% | +27% | $2K |
| 3 | TSMC / Taiwan | 72% | +38% | $2K |
| 4 | Chip | 70% | +43% | $1K |
| 5 | Iran 5+ times | 66% | +53% | $118 |
| 6 | Russia / Ukraine | 62% | +60% | $1K |
| 7 | Healthcare 3+ times | 61% | +64% | $667 |
| 8 | Transgender 5+ times | 54% | +85% | $513 |
| 9 | Hell 14+ times | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Border 20+ times | 45% | +122% | $851 |
| 11 | Hormuz | 34% | +199% | $2K |
| 12 | Israel / Israeli | 29% | +245% | $89 |
| 13 | ICE 3+ times | 26% | +277% | $919 |
| 14 | School Choice | 24% | +308% | $2K |
| 15 | America First | 24% | +326% | $394 |
| 16 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 22% | +365% | $211 |
| 17 | SI / Super Intelligence 3+ times | 20% | +413% | $727 |
| 18 | Six Seven BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $22 |
| 19 | Ceasefire | 4% | +2717% | $376 |
| 20 | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 2% | +5163% | $43 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Bullhead City, Arizona on October 14, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-bullhead-city-arizona-pr...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona? will occur, with $16K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Shit / Ass at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-14. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 14, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Shit / Ass at 80% probability, with $16K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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