The market strongly favors Democrat 5+ times at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democrat 5+ times | 98% | +2% | $2K |
| 2 | Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | 92% | +9% | $12 |
| 3 | Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times | 91% | +10% | $29 |
| 4 | Crime / Criminal 5+ times | 88% | +14% | $40 |
| 5 | Russia / Ukraine | 80% | +24% | $1K |
| 6 | Transgender 5+ times | 78% | +29% | $597 |
| 7 | Iran 5+ times | 73% | +37% | $944 |
| 8 | Mar-a-Lago / Golf | 68% | +46% | $21 |
| 9 | SI / Super Intelligence | 68% | +47% | $897 |
| 10 | Fish / Fisher / Fishing | 64% | +57% | $237 |
| 11 | Hormuz / Blockade | 62% | +61% | $1K |
| 12 | Space / Moon | 60% | +65% | $208 |
| 13 | Hell 15+ times | 56% | +77% | $649 |
| 14 | Veteran | 53% | +89% | $261 |
| 15 | Tariff 6+ times | 50% | +98% | $141 |
| 16 | Ass | 50% | +100% | $729 |
| 17 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 33% | +203% | $3K |
| 18 | Jacksonville | 31% | +223% | $69 |
| 19 | Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | 31% | +223% | $1K |
| 20 | Drill Baby Drill BEST VALUE | 27% | +270% | $739 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Fort Myers, Florida on October 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-fort-myers-fl-president-don...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Democrat 5+ times is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (102% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 23, 2026 at 15:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrat 5+ times at 98% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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