The market strongly favors Biden at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biden | 88% | +14% | $4K |
| 2 | Police Officer | 85% | +18% | $261 |
| 3 | Communist / Communism | 82% | +22% | $3K |
| 4 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 82% | +23% | $6K |
| 5 | Transgender | 80% | +25% | $2K |
| 6 | Hottest | 77% | +30% | $223 |
| 7 | Stock Market | 74% | +35% | $2K |
| 8 | Through The Roof | 72% | +40% | $2K |
| 9 | Crazy | 70% | +42% | $811 |
| 10 | MAGA / Make America Great Again | 64% | +56% | $2K |
| 11 | Zohran / Mamdani | 62% | +61% | $3K |
| 12 | Barack Hussein Obama | 50% | +100% | $213 |
| 13 | Border 15+ times | 49% | +104% | $1K |
| 14 | Drug / Murderer 10+ times | 48% | +111% | $335 |
| 15 | Supreme Court | 46% | +115% | $266 |
| 16 | Crime 15+ times | 41% | +144% | $654 |
| 17 | Kamala | 40% | +153% | $1K |
| 18 | Think About It | 38% | +160% | $1K |
| 19 | Hell 7+ times BEST VALUE | 37% | +170% | $189 |
| 20 | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 3% | +3025% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks in New York on August 14, 2026. (https://x.com/bern_hogan/status/2086883175402184730). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed ter...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say during remarks in New York? will occur, with $33K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Biden is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $33K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-14. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 12, 2026 at 02:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Biden at 88% probability, with $33K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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