No clear favorite. US Bank leads at just 4%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Bank | 4% | +2400% | $4K |
| 2 | UBS | 4% | +2497% | $649 |
| 3 | Wells Fargo | 3% | +2885% | $4K |
| 4 | RBC | 3% | +2977% | $106 |
| 5 | HSBC | 3% | +3075% | $936 |
| 6 | Scotiabank | 3% | +3179% | $3K |
| 7 | BNP Paribas | 3% | +3348% | $161 |
| 8 | Santander | 3% | +3409% | $1K |
| 9 | BNY | 3% | +3471% | $1K |
| 10 | Deutsche Bank | 3% | +3604% | $4K |
| 11 | KeyBank | 2% | +3900% | $7K |
| 12 | Citigroup | 2% | +3982% | $2K |
| 13 | Lloyds | 2% | +4067% | $7K |
| 14 | Truist | 2% | +4155% | $8K |
| 15 | Bank of America | 2% | +5163% | $78 |
| 16 | BMO | 2% | +5456% | $648 |
| 17 | Goldman Sachs | 2% | +6352% | $151 |
| 18 | Morgan Stanley | 2% | +6567% | $184 |
| 19 | JPMorgan Chase | 1% | +7307% | $550 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, th...
This prediction market tracks whether Which banks will fail by end of 2026? will occur, with $44K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
No clear favorite has emerged — US Bank leads at only 4% across 19 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (41% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 01, 2026 at 05:25 UTC, the leading outcome is US Bank at 4% probability, with $44K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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