No clear favorite. OpenAI leads at just 32%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OpenAI | 32% | +212% | $21K |
| 2 | 20% | +400% | $17K | |
| 3 | DeepSeek | 16% | +506% | $14K |
| 4 | Meta | 14% | +641% | $15K |
| 5 | Alibaba | 12% | +700% | $3K |
| 6 | xAI | 12% | +700% | $9K |
| 7 | Moonshot | 10% | +852% | $7K |
| 8 | Z.ai | 8% | +1076% | $2K |
| 9 | ByteDance | 8% | +1233% | $3K |
| 10 | Amazon | 8% | +1233% | $3K |
| 11 | Microsoft | 8% | +1233% | $3K |
| 12 | Baidu | 6% | +1438% | $2K |
| 13 | Meituan BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $2K |
| 14 | Mistral | 4% | +2532% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? will occur, with $111K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — OpenAI leads at only 32% across 14 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 09:35 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 32% probability, with $111K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $111K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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