Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Current Odds
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democratic Party | 50% | $653K |
| 2 | Republican Party | 48% | $703K |
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FAQ
What are the current odds for Which party will win the Senate in 2026??
As of Mar 31, 2026 at 08:00 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 50% probability, with $1.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
How much money is bet on Which party will win the Senate in 2026??
The total trading volume for this market is $1.4M, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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