Thom Tillis leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thom Tillis | 82% | +23% | $3K |
| 2 | Jerry Moran | 55% | +82% | $3K |
| 3 | Mike Lee | 44% | +127% | $2K |
| 4 | Ruben Gallego | 31% | +223% | $3K |
| 5 | Kirsten Gillibrand | 29% | +245% | $241 |
| 6 | Jacky Rosen | 29% | +245% | $60 |
| 7 | Alex Padilla | 29% | +245% | $20 |
| 8 | Raphael Warnock | 28% | +251% | $672 |
| 9 | John Fetterman | 27% | +270% | $83 |
| 10 | Catherine Cortez Masto | 26% | +292% | $769 |
| 11 | Mark Warner | 24% | +317% | $339 |
| 12 | Lisa Blunt Rochester | 24% | +326% | $1K |
| 13 | Andy Kim | 22% | +364% | $175 |
| 14 | Josh Hawley | 16% | +525% | $615 |
| 15 | Rand Paul BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $62 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Thom Tillis at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (78% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 31, 2026 at 21:26 UTC, the leading outcome is Thom Tillis at 82% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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