Market is split — Jacky Rosen at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacky Rosen | 50% | +98% | $14K |
| 2 | Thom Tillis | 42% | +141% | $14K |
| 3 | Kirsten Gillibrand | 36% | +178% | $739 |
| 4 | Ruben Gallego | 33% | +203% | $9K |
| 5 | Alex Padilla | 32% | +214% | $5K |
| 6 | Mike Lee | 30% | +228% | $10K |
| 7 | John Fetterman | 30% | +228% | $2K |
| 8 | Raphael Warnock | 28% | +251% | $1K |
| 9 | Catherine Cortez Masto | 24% | +308% | $6K |
| 10 | Rand Paul | 18% | +456% | $198 |
| 11 | Lisa Blunt Rochester | 16% | +506% | $3K |
| 12 | Josh Hawley | 16% | +545% | $4K |
| 13 | Jerry Moran | 15% | +567% | $8K |
| 14 | Andy Kim | 10% | +947% | $1K |
| 15 | Mark Warner BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? will occur, with $83K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Jacky Rosen leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 15, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Jacky Rosen at 50% probability, with $83K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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