This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democratic Party | 84% | $2.1M |
| 2 | Republican Party | 16% | $2.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 84% probability, with $4.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $4.1M, with $36K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade