The market strongly favors Joe Biden at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Biden | 99% | +1% | $2K |
| 2 | Barack Obama | 96% | +4% | $1K |
| 3 | Tucker Carlson | 80% | +24% | $143 |
| 4 | Nicolás Maduro | 66% | +52% | - |
| 5 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | 52% | +94% | - |
| 6 | Megyn Kelly | 49% | +104% | $2 |
| 7 | Jerome Powell | 45% | +122% | $20 |
| 8 | Jimmy Kimmel | 42% | +138% | - |
| 9 | Zohran Mamdani | 28% | +257% | - |
| 10 | Vladimir Putin | 24% | +308% | $26 |
| 11 | Benjamin Netanyahu | 17% | +488% | $102 |
| 12 | Candace Owens | 16% | +506% | $5 |
| 13 | Kaitlan Collins | 14% | +641% | - |
| 14 | Andy Burnham | 11% | +809% | $802 |
| 15 | Norah O'Donnell | 8% | +1076% | $1K |
| 16 | Emmanuel Macron | 8% | +1233% | $197 |
| 17 | Alex Jones | 7% | +1329% | $82 |
| 18 | Friedrich Merz | 7% | +1329% | $522 |
| 19 | Kevin Warsh | 7% | +1329% | - |
| 20 | Xi Jinping BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $279 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31? will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Joe Biden is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 31, 2026 at 20:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Joe Biden at 99% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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