The market strongly favors Joe Biden at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Biden | 100% | - | $3K |
| 2 | James Talarico | 100% | - | $631 |
| 3 | Nicolás Maduro | 100% | +1% | $1K |
| 4 | Abdul El-Sayed | 98% | +2% | $627 |
| 5 | J.B. Pritzker | 92% | +8% | $40 |
| 6 | Barack Obama | 90% | +11% | $195 |
| 7 | Jon Ossoff | 87% | +15% | $20 |
| 8 | Jerome Powell | 86% | +16% | $432 |
| 9 | Kaitlan Collins | 84% | +19% | $61 |
| 10 | Kamala Harris | 84% | +19% | $30 |
| 11 | Gavin Newsom | 82% | +23% | $41 |
| 12 | Chuck Schumer | 75% | +33% | $120 |
| 13 | Kathy Hochul | 74% | +34% | $20 |
| 14 | Mark Carney | 74% | +35% | $60 |
| 15 | Hakeem Jeffries | 74% | +36% | $100 |
| 16 | Letitia James | 71% | +41% | $60 |
| 17 | Elizabeth Warren | 70% | +43% | $60 |
| 18 | Tucker Carlson | 60% | +67% | $120 |
| 19 | Ilhan Omar | 50% | +98% | $20 |
| 20 | Hillary Clinton BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | $105 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Joe Biden is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 05:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Joe Biden at 100% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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