The market strongly favors Steve Witkoff at 95%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Witkoff | 95% | +5% | $100 |
| 2 | Jared Kushner | 78% | +29% | $563 |
| 3 | Mark Rutte | 76% | +32% | $20 |
| 4 | Ursula von der Leyen | 64% | +56% | $857 |
| 5 | Donald Tusk | 64% | +56% | $40 |
| 6 | Andy Burnham | 62% | +60% | $960 |
| 7 | António Costa | 60% | +67% | $40 |
| 8 | Friedrich Merz | 50% | +100% | $240 |
| 9 | Emmanuel Macron | 47% | +113% | $211 |
| 10 | Maia Sandu | 46% | +120% | $219 |
| 11 | Keith Kellogg | 42% | +141% | $385 |
| 12 | Mark Carney | 31% | +223% | $475 |
| 13 | António Guterres | 18% | +471% | $200 |
| 14 | Donald Trump | 12% | +770% | $12K |
| 15 | JD Vance BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: Steve Witkoff is priced at 95%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 30, 2026 at 09:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Steve Witkoff at 95% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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