The market strongly favors António Costa at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | António Costa | 100% | - | $39K |
| 2 | Donald Tusk | 100% | - | $17K |
| 3 | Maia Sandu | 100% | - | $8K |
| 4 | Steve Witkoff | 100% | - | $24K |
| 5 | Jared Kushner | 100% | - | $32K |
| 6 | Keith Kellogg | 100% | - | $27K |
| 7 | Friedrich Merz | 100% | - | $85K |
| 8 | Andy Burnham | 100% | - | $17K |
| 9 | Melania Trump | 47% | +113% | $308 |
| 10 | Mark Rutte | 46% | +117% | $111K |
| 11 | Ursula von der Leyen | 44% | +125% | $96K |
| 12 | JD Vance | 19% | +433% | $149K |
| 13 | António Guterres | 14% | +590% | $10K |
| 14 | Emmanuel Macron | 11% | +809% | $12K |
| 15 | Mark Carney | 8% | +1076% | $15K |
| 16 | Donald Trump BEST VALUE | 5% | +1735% | $110K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of t...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? will occur, with $751K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: António Costa is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $35K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 30, 2026 at 09:05 UTC, the leading outcome is António Costa at 100% probability, with $751K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $751K, with $35K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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