The market strongly favors António Costa at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | António Costa | 100% | - | $39K |
| 2 | Maia Sandu | 100% | - | $8K |
| 3 | Steve Witkoff | 100% | - | $24K |
| 4 | Jared Kushner | 100% | - | $32K |
| 5 | Keith Kellogg | 100% | - | $27K |
| 6 | Andy Burnham | 100% | - | $17K |
| 7 | Donald Tusk | 88% | +13% | $13K |
| 8 | Mark Rutte | 36% | +178% | $10K |
| 9 | Ursula von der Leyen | 36% | +182% | $10K |
| 10 | António Guterres | 32% | +208% | $9K |
| 11 | Friedrich Merz | 32% | +212% | $37K |
| 12 | Mark Carney | 24% | +308% | $12K |
| 13 | Emmanuel Macron | 17% | +488% | $8K |
| 14 | JD Vance BEST VALUE | 13% | +663% | $72K |
| 15 | Donald Trump | 4% | +2147% | $109K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of t...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? will occur, with $426K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: António Costa is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $24K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 14, 2026 at 09:55 UTC, the leading outcome is António Costa at 100% probability, with $426K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $426K, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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